Commercial vehicle market: what to expect after a record-breaking 2023 year

In a recent interview with "Vedomosti," the CEO of PJSC KAMAZ, Sergey Anatolyevich Kogogin, expressed the opinion that Chinese companies - manufacturers of commercial vehicles - are in a predicament because they have imported a huge amount of equipment while the market is declining. The strategy of the domestic automotive giant anticipates a 20% drop in the heavy truck market in 2024, from 135 thousand units to 109.

Has the celebration on the street of commercial vehicle sellers come to an end? At first glance, it seems so. Prices are falling, warehouses are full, and a cash gap hangs like a sword of Damocles over many companies that have rushed to become distributors of new brands. Everyone blames high money costs, uneven supplies, and market uncontrollability from the manufacturers.

But if you look a little deeper, the situation is not so straightforward. At the recent February 14th forum by the Autostat agency, experts claimed that they do not see a market decline now, and the analysis of preconditions promises a repeat of the record-breaking 2023. Major suppliers behind the scenes mentioned that there is, of course, equipment in warehouses, but not as much, and discounts on highway trucks are decreasing. Transport companies noted that the cost of money is undoubtedly alarmingly high, but current tariffs provide, albeit small, operational profit on new equipment. They observed that the shortage of semi-trailer equipment, especially refrigerators, as well as the critical shortage of drivers, are of greater concern.

Experts from the Association of Chinese Automobile Manufacturers in Russia, created under the Russian-Asian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs, note that in 2023 not only was pent-up demand for equipment realized, but there was also an increase in freight transportation itself due to a shift towards the east and the global south. Mileages have increased – and more equipment is needed. Railway lines are overloaded, and road transport is the only way out in this situation. The mathematical model for calculating the need for highway trucks shows that demand will remain at around 50,000 units. Dump trucks are more complicated. On one hand, a huge amount of infrastructure projects require equipment, but making predictions in this case is extremely difficult. What can be said for sure is that in 2024, there will be a major focus on special equipment. Chinese manufacturers are preparing models specifically for our market, undergoing certification, and demand for chassis for various superstructures will start to be implemented soon. In normal market conditions, special equipment accounted for up to 30%, but in 2022-2023, the share dropped to 10%. A leap can be expected here.

Retailers, except for X5, also took a break from purchasing equipment, but Magnit has already returned to the market, ordering a large batch of Sitrak trucks; it is expected that other companies will follow suit.

Another important factor is that large carriers, except for GTL and Crafter, also did not make large purchases, preferring to try out a small number of trucks from different brands in order to choose a main supplier. There is already information that one of the industry leaders, the transportation company Delko, plans to order several hundred trucks. The National Carrier, a subsidiary of KAMAZ, also has ambitious plans.

So why does Sergey Anatolyevich's thesis on tsugtswang not arouse controversy? The issue is that equipment distributors are short of money. After purchasing a huge amount of vehicles and paying for them upfront, they urgently need to recoup the money. They lower prices, engage in dumping, and instead of making a profit, they suffer losses. Banks refuse to provide credit for new purchases and demand repayment of existing loans, while Chinese automakers offer no support from their side as well. Distributors find themselves in a situation where any action only worsens the situation, and they have to choose the lesser of many evils. This leads to a lack of investment in distribution systems and a continuous decrease in service quality for customers. This is a feature of Chinese business management. The same problems exist in the passenger car segment. They were very well described by specialists from the consulting company Avtoboss at a seminar on servicing Chinese cars: no catalogs, no marketing support, no information systems, and not a word about customer care. It is only gratifying that our Eastern partners are quick learners and are interested in the Russian market. The current situation should clearly demonstrate that you need to work with the market - and then it will reward you with high sales and profits. Meanwhile, we anticipate a shortage of trucks by the beginning of summer.